Nate Getting Stronger--Still Not Expected to Impact Florida

posted by Operation Storm Watch -

Tropical Storm Nate continues to move toward the Gulf.  Here's the latest information from the National Hurricane Center:


LOCATION...18.7N 85.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM NNE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, and for the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, and from west of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Provence of Pinar del Rio and a Tropical Storm Watch for the Provence of the Isle of Youth.

The Meteorological Service of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 85.0 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and move near or over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening.  Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move near or over the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter data is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba by tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border...4 to 7 ft Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.